Call me crazy, but I even think the Ravens could win this game. They are healthy for the first time all season on defense and we saw that last week when they kept the Colts out of the end zone. Peyton Manning is 9-0 in his last 9 vs. the Ravens and he'll have his fun today, but historically he has not played well in his first game after a bye week. First of all I think the bye week is over rated unless you have a ton of injuries. Why? Well it's not like you get to prepare for one team for 2 weeks. You don't know who your opponent is and for a team like Denver that was red hot on a big winning streak of 11 to close out the season this is the last thing I would think they wanted. Since 1990 teams with 8+ game winning streaks to close a season and had a bye are just 3-16 ATS when they are laying more than 3 points in that first game.
Manning also has not been his usual elite self and this time he won't have the benefit of playing in a dome. In his career he has had 4 byes and those teams averaged 27 points. In that first playoff game Manning's offense only averaged 19.5 points more than a TD difference from his season average. So you tell me did the bye really allow Manning an advantage over the competition?
Next Denver backers are claiming how elite their run defense is. They are #2 in run defense efficiency allowing just 3.6 ypc, but they faced just 3 teams in the top 10 and 2 of those 3 games were against the Chiefs who obviously were coming from behind throwing it more. If Baltimore can get up early in this game and continue to lean on the run Denver could have big problems. Bernard Pierce and Ray Rice are as good as any combo in this league averaging 4.9 ypc in their last 3 games and Caldwell seems to remember how to run the ball rushing it around 56% of the time over their last three games. If Denver gets a 2 TD lead then we can forget about it. The last thing the Ravens want is to let Joe Fluco, yes I said Fluco throwing the ball with their offensive line protecting him against the #2 sack % team in the league in Denver.
